SOL Objective(s):
7.9 The student will investigate and describe the difference between the experimental probability and theoretical probability of an event.
The Basics and Background Information
• Theoretical probability of an event is the expected probability and can be found with a formula.
• Theoretical probability of an event = number of possible favorable outcomes
total number of possible outcomes
• The experimental probability of an event is determined by carrying out a simulation or an experiment.
• The experimental probability = number of times desired outcomes occur
number of trials in the experiment
• In experimental probability, as the number of trials increases, the experimental probability gets closer to the theoretical probability (Law of Large Numbers).
• Theoretical probability of an event = number of possible favorable outcomes
total number of possible outcomes
• The experimental probability of an event is determined by carrying out a simulation or an experiment.
• The experimental probability = number of times desired outcomes occur
number of trials in the experiment
• In experimental probability, as the number of trials increases, the experimental probability gets closer to the theoretical probability (Law of Large Numbers).
Essential Knowledge and Skills
The student will use problem solving, mathematical communication, mathematical reasoning, connections, and representations to...
• Determine the theoretical probability of an event.
• Determine the experimental probability of an event.
• Describe changes in the experimental probability as the number of trials increases.
• Investigate and describe the difference between the probability of an event found through experiment or simulation versus the theoretical probability of that same event.
• Determine the theoretical probability of an event.
• Determine the experimental probability of an event.
• Describe changes in the experimental probability as the number of trials increases.
• Investigate and describe the difference between the probability of an event found through experiment or simulation versus the theoretical probability of that same event.
Vocabulary and Things to Know:experimental probability  based on experience/experiment
theoretical probability  based on calculation probability written in part to whole odds written in part to part 
Be Able To:find experimental probability when given story
find theoretical probability when given information/data identify and know difference between experimental and theoretical probability 
The topic: What is it and what will we learn?
Basically...?
Theoretical is just the math  the calculations  what SHOULD happen. Favorable : Possible (Part to Whole ratio)
Experimental is tied to an actual (or pretend) situation or story  what ACTUALLY happens. Actually occurs : Total Tries (Again, Part to Whole ratio)
ODDS? Written DIFFERENTLY!
Odds in favor... Favorable outcomes : Unfavorable (This is a part to part ratio.  You have to add the two parts to see total possible.)
Odds against... Unfavorable outcomes : Favorable (Again, part to part ratio. Add two parts to see total possible.)
Theoretical is just the math  the calculations  what SHOULD happen. Favorable : Possible (Part to Whole ratio)
Experimental is tied to an actual (or pretend) situation or story  what ACTUALLY happens. Actually occurs : Total Tries (Again, Part to Whole ratio)
ODDS? Written DIFFERENTLY!
Odds in favor... Favorable outcomes : Unfavorable (This is a part to part ratio.  You have to add the two parts to see total possible.)
Odds against... Unfavorable outcomes : Favorable (Again, part to part ratio. Add two parts to see total possible.)
Theoretical vs. Experimental ProbabilityA lesson with notes are shared and then several examples are given.


Theoretical vs. Experimental ProbabilityAnother lesson with several examples discussed.

